Where your tax goes

What's planned for the next few years?

The Government expects to spend more than it collects in every year to 2030-31, and to borrow to cover the gap. It plans to spend HK$843.4 billion in 2026-27 p.7. For 2030-31 it forecasts spending of HK$913.6 billion and revenue of HK$875.1 billion p.7.

How 2027-28 spending is split between health, education, welfare and other areas will be published with the Budget in February 2027. For now, the Medium Range Forecast gives only totals, up to 2030-31 Budget Appendix A, p.7.

Revenue and spending

Spending is forecast to exceed revenue every year to 2030-31

Government revenue and expenditure, consolidated account, HK$ billion. Solid lines: actual. Dashed: the 2026-27 estimate and the forecast after it.

2025-26 is a provisional actual, published in April 2026 Government press release, web. Revenue does not include money raised by issuing bonds. Before 2025-26, part of the gap was also met by drawing on reserves (see the reserves chart below).

Sources: p.3 p.2 web p.7

Show every year as a table
Year RevenueExpenditureBalance before bondsBonds issuedBonds repaidBalance after bondsReserves at 31 March
2021-22
Actual		 693,576p.3693,339p.3237p.329,124p.3—29,361p.3957,128p.3
2022-23
Actual		 622,147p.3810,477p.3−188,330p.365,992p.3—−122,338p.3834,790p.3
2023-24
Actual		 549,406p.3721,301p.3−171,895p.372,490p.3800p.3−100,205p.3734,585p.3
2024-25
Actual		 564,908.9p.2753,220.6p.2−188,311.7p.2130,036.0p.221,993.0p.2−80,268.6p.2654,316.8p.1
2025-26
Provisional actual		 697,468.5web790,330.2web−92,861.7web156,036.4web51,950.9web11,223.8web665,540.6web
2026-27
Estimate		 765,234p.7843,416p.7−78,182p.7160,000p.759,708p.722,110p.7679,332p.7
2027-28
Forecast		 794,456p.7866,602p.7−72,146p.7210,000p.7129,923p.77,931p.7687,263p.7
2028-29
Forecast		 765,797p.7871,863p.7−106,066p.7220,000p.7103,307p.710,627p.7697,890p.7
2029-30
Forecast		 819,741p.7890,799p.7−71,058p.7190,000p.7101,571p.717,371p.7715,261p.7
2030-31
Forecast		 875,148p.7913,606p.7−38,458p.7190,000p.7133,148p.718,394p.7733,655p.7

Negative numbers are deficits. Figures are in HK$ million, taken from the official documents. "—": no bond repayment is printed for these years p.3.

2025-26 reserves are the provisional outturn published in April 2026. The 2026-27 estimate and the forecasts start from the Budget's February estimate of reserves at the end of 2025-26, HK$657,222 million p.7, not from the provisional outturn. So the change between those two rows is not the 2026-27 surplus.

Fiscal reserves

Fiscal reserves are the Government's savings: they grow with a surplus and shrink with a deficit. They are a different kind of number from yearly revenue and spending, so they have their own chart.

Reserves are forecast to stay at about 10 months of spending p.7

Fiscal reserves at 31 March each year, HK$ billion. Solid line: actual. Dashed: estimate and forecast.

Reserves fell from HK$957.1 billion at the end of 2021-22 p.3 to HK$654.3 billion at the end of 2024-25 p.1. As a share of GDP they are forecast to fall from 19.5% to 17.3% p.7.

For 2025-26 this shows the Budget's February revised estimate, HK$657.2 billion p.7, because the 2026-27 estimate and the forecasts start from it. The provisional outturn, published in April 2026, was HK$665.5 billion web.

Show reserves for every year as a table
Year Reserves (HK$ million) Months of spending Share of GDP
2021-22
Actual		 957,128p.3 — —
2022-23
Actual		 834,790p.3 — —
2023-24
Actual		 734,585p.3 — —
2024-25
Actual		 654,316.8p.1 — —
2025-26
Revised estimate		 657,222p.7 10p.7 19.7%p.7
2026-27
Estimate		 679,332p.7 10p.7 19.5%p.7
2027-28
Forecast		 687,263p.7 10p.7 18.8%p.7
2028-29
Forecast		 697,890p.7 10p.7 18.1%p.7
2029-30
Forecast		 715,261p.7 10p.7 17.7%p.7
2030-31
Forecast		 733,655p.7 10p.7 17.3%p.7

"—": no ratio is published for that year.

What's assumed, and what's changing

The economy

From 2027-28 onwards, the revenue forecast basically reflects each revenue source's trend yield. Budget Appendix A, p.6

Real GDP growth, 2026 Estimate
2.5% to 3.5% p.115
Nominal GDP growth, 2026 Estimate
4.2% to 5.2% p.115
Rise in the GDP deflator (prices), 2026 Estimate
1.7% p.115
Real growth each year, 2027 to 2030 (trend) Forecast
3% p.6
GDP deflator each year, 2027 to 2030 (trend) Forecast
2% p.6
Nominal growth each year, 2027 to 2030 (trend) Forecast
5% p.6
Nominal GDP, 2026 → 2030 Forecast
HK$3,488.4 billion → HK$4,240.1 billion p.11
Government spending as a share of GDP, 2026-27 → 2030-31 Forecast
24.2% → 21.5% p.91 p.96

Revenue

Day-to-day budget in surplus, building works borrowed for

The forecast splits the Government's accounts in two. The operating account covers day-to-day spending such as salaries, welfare and public services. The capital account covers building works and other investment, and is where government bonds are counted. The operating account is forecast to be in surplus every year; the capital account stays in deficit, and bonds fill the gap.

Year Operating account Capital account Overall, before bonds
2026-27
Estimate		 11,910p.7 −90,092p.7 −78,182p.7
2027-28
Forecast		 26,442p.7 −98,588p.7 −72,146p.7
2028-29
Forecast		 41,197p.7 −147,263p.7 −106,066p.7
2029-30
Forecast		 52,162p.7 −123,220p.7 −71,058p.7
2030-31
Forecast		 68,870p.7 −107,328p.7 −38,458p.7

What would next year's receipt look like?

Total government spending is forecast at HK$866.6 billion in 2027-28 p.7, up HK$23.2 billion (+2.7%) on the HK$843.4 billion planned for 2026-27 p.7 (our calculation).

That total is all the forecast gives. How 2027-28 spending is split between health, education, welfare and the other areas isn't published yet: it comes with the Budget in February 2027. So we don't project next year's receipt. The receipt on this site uses the 2026-27 split.

See your receipt for this year · See what changed this year